WEEKLY AGRI REPORT

Weekly Report -  21th Nov to 25th Nov

JEERA


Trend remained weak for Jeera as moderate arrivals amidst low export demand and good sowing prospects kept sentiments weak for the commodity. Traders expect more short term corrections till exports pick up significantly. Reports on the sowing progress in Gujarat and Rajasthan would be important for the short term market sentiments. Good rains early this year could have a positive impact on the sowing activities as per traders. Medium term trend looks firm from expected rise in export demand but short term trend is expected to remain volatile. Firmness in Dollar v/s Re. too could support the export factor. Lower production in Turkey and Syria could impart firmness to Indian rates. Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tonnes. Export demand from US and EU could also rise at these lower levels in coming weeks and that could have a moderate bullish impact on the prices. Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the estimated exports of Spices for the period April-Sept 2011 have fallen by 19% from 294925 MT in 2010 to 237585 MT in 2011. Jeera exports fell by 15% from 18800 MT to 16000 MT during the same period.

Strategy
Jeera is in a bearish trend and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 13250 then we can expect the level of 12950, and if it sustains above 14000 then we can see the level of 14250.


GUAR 



Guar Spot prices as well as Futures extended gains during the week and settled 0.45% higher on Wednesday owing to reduced arrivals at the domestic mandis. Expectation of revision in the Guar output is providing support to the prices. Fall in export demand due to uncertainties in the European markets has been pressurizing market sentiments as traders wait for exports to rise. Low production and stock prospects could support rates in medium term though. Arrivals remained steady at 60,000 bags on Wednesday as compared to 70000-75000 bags in the beginning of the month. Despite of lower output estimates in the current season arrivals are much higher. This is because farmers this season are not holding back their stocks due to record high prices. Record Average daily arrivals are hovering around 90 thousand to 1 lakh bags compared to 55-60 thousand bags in the previous year. As per First Advanced Estimates of Kharif Crop in Rajasthan, the sowing area is 29.07 lakh hectares compared to 30 lakh hectares last year. Production expected at 11.37 lakh tonnes v/s 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11(Directorate of Agriculture, Rajasthan). Traders estimate that in Haryana too the sowing area has fallen to 2.15 lakh ha v/s 2.56 lakh ha last year. Production expected at 2 lakh tonnes while in Gujarat, production estimates at 0.65 lakh tonnes. Better rains in Rajasthan and Gujarat are however expected to improve productivity of the crops this year. Financial problems in US and EU are worrisome however on export front. It needs to be noted that rates have come down significantly over last 1 month due to lower export demand. Lower carryover stock and delayed harvesting along with reports of a fall in production and a likely pickup in exports could support the prices. A strong Dollar v/s Re. could have a beneficial impact on the export front.


Strategy

For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 4540 we can see the level of 4600, and below 4265 it can touch the level of 4215.




SOYBEAN 



NCDEX December Soybean futures traded higher on account of firm overseas market as improved demand from China and spot demand was reported to be supportive for prices. Demand from China is due to easing monetary policies to spur economic growth. China is planning for more US Soybean to increase their stock reserve. According to executives with a state grain processing and trading company, China bought six cargoes (500,000 metric tonnes) of Soybeans from the U.S. Despite arrivals increasing in markets stockists and crushers are actively buying which helped prices to gain a tad. The move is part of its plan to buy 2 million tons of Soybeans. As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, Indian Soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year. USDA's monthly S & D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. Brazil Soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at  91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower Soybean and cottonseed production. The Soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.



Strategy

For next week in Soybean one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above the level of 2300 we can see the level of 2330 and on the  downside if it sustains below 2190 level we can see Soybean at 2160 level.




INDIAN CHANA TRADE DOWN ON PROFIT BOOKING


Chana futures extended gains during the week and settled 1.22 % higher on Thursday on account of improved buying at the support levels. Spot prices however ended 0.22% marginally down on Wednesday on account of lackluster trades at the domestic mandis. There are reports that supplies
in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as
compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period. The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (13.33 lakh hectares, up 48 per cent). Together, they account for four-fifth of the gram produced in the country. Government announced Support Price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons. Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn. Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.

Strategy 


For the next week in Chana one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above 3635 we can see the level of 3690 and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 3525 we can see Chana at 3470.

MCX Tips provided by me are source of knowledge and trading strategies for its clients and visitors. Free Commodity tips benefits the traders from the Live Markets commodity calls provided by us, and thus make huge money from the strategies we provide them. FREE MCX Tips are also provided by us on a one two trial days basis for the visitors to our website. MCX Commodities are a great and huge source of profit from Indian commodities traders. There are various commodities being traded on these exchanges ranging from Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude, Nickel, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, and many more. We provide Daily MCX Reports, Daily Gold Reports, Daily Silver Reports, Daily Copper Trend,Gold reports, Silver reports and Copper Reports, Technical/fundamental Reports on Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminium,Zinc, Nickel, Crude Oil and Natural Gas with a host of Agri Commodities like Mentha Oil, Cardamom, Potato, Potato Tarkeshwar, Chana, Guarseed, Jeera, Pepper as well as Trading Calls for all commodities on MCX and NCDEX . Apart form Commodity We have other services for Intraday Stock Tips, Free Share Tips, Nifty Tips, Nifty Future Tips, Nifty Option Tips, Free Nifty Tips, Equity Tips, Stock Cash Tips, Free Trading Tips. Register Today to Get Free Trial Stock Commodity Trading tips for Intra-day, Short Term & Long Term Investment on Mobile from Today 23rd December to Tomorrow 24th December 2013.

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More

 
Disclaimer: The usage of this blog confirms to the policy that the investment in stock market has inherent risks and author or his clients may or may not be following the recommended tips.This Blog is not responsible for any errors, omissions or representations on any of our pages or on any links on any of our pages. Blog does not endorse in anyway any advertisers on our web pages. Please verify the veracity of all information on your own before undertaking any alliance.The author will not be held responsible for any loss incurred by following the advice.