MCX Commodity bullion Trend

Bullion Metal Trend

Precious metals got support from the weak economic data dissipated from U.S. showing a weaker growth but soon lost their shine a 3 year high Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Some profit booking was also seen in the Precious Metal complex. Gold Apr futures on COMEX fell by 0.46% to $1,409.3/troy ounce from $1,415.80/troy ounce while Silver Mar futures also declined by 0.81% to $32.9/troy ounce from $33.17/troy ounce. Gold/Silver ratio rose to 42.7 on Friday from 42.63 the prior day.

Today in the afternoon session we have the inflation data from Euro zone and is expected to remain flat to 2.4 percent on year on year basis. If the inflation is more than expected then the prospects of a rate hike would strengthen and would support the Euro. Today in the later session of the day we have U.S. spending data which is expected to increase by 0.4 percent. Any deviation to upside would support the prices of the precious metals complex. Today Gold prices will face resistance at $1,415/troy ounce and $1,420/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.20,939/10gm and Rs.20,977/10gm level in MCX April contract while on the lower side Support can be seen at $1,402/troy ounce and $1,394.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.20,939/10gm and Rs.20, 917/10gm level.

Silver Trend

Silver prices likely to face resistance at $32.5/troy ounce and $33.8/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs. 49,767/kg and Rs.50,313/kg level in MCX March contract. While on lower side prices can take support at $32.5/troy ounce and $31.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.49,767/kg and Rs.49,433/kg.

Crude Oil Trend

Crude oil Apr futures on NYMEX rose by 0.62% to $97.88/barrel from $97.28/barrel amid unrest spreading to Oman, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Even though on Friday NYMEX boosted the margin requirement on oil futures for the first time since March 2009 as crude traded above $100 a barrel to $6,075 per contract from $5,063 failed to pressurize the crude oil prices. The latest change on ICE also showed a boost in the Brent margin to $5,200 from $4,850 per contract along with the news in the market that Saudi Arabia has boosted the oil supplies by 9 million barrels per day were kept aside. What weighed on the bearish news were the unrest which continued in Libya and Bahrain along with the unrest which started yesterday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer.

Zinc Review

Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.114.4/kg and Rs.113.7/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to target Rs.109.7/kg and Rs.108/kg level.

Nickel Review

Nickel prices have resistance at Rs.1,293/kg and Rs.1,303.8/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to take support at Rs.1,262/kg and Rs.1,241.8/kg level.

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Commodity MCX, NCDEX Review

MCX Commodity Trend

Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from ongoing concerns in Libya coupled with strength in the US dollar. Copper was the only metal to gain on the LME in today’s trading session. Decline of 1.8 percent in weekly Shanghai copper inventories acted as a supportive factor for prices to gain. The red metal traded up 0.5 percent on the LME and were hovering around $9554.75/tonne at 4.30 pm IST. But Rupee appreciation led MCX copper to trade on a flat note today.

We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to strength in the US dollar today. Crude oil prices are expected to trade higher mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries. However, sharp gains in the oil prices will be capped due to strength in the US dollar. We expect gold to trade higher today, mainly taking cues from ongoing turmoil in Libya which will increase safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, rising crude oil prices will also help the yellow metal to rise as an inflation-hedge.

NCDEX Commodity Trend

Guar Review

Guar futures in the intraday are expected to recover tracking the firmness in the crude oil prices and revival in the export demand. In the short term (2 - 3 weeks) we expect Guar prices to trade sideways to down due to decline in the overseas orders at higher rates and may trade in the range of Rs.2800 and Rs. 3050 per qtl.

In the medium term (2 months), prices would be dependent on the overseas demand scenario.

Sugar review

Sugar prices in the intraday are expected to recover owing to expectation that the government might release lower quota in the month of March and positive statement by the farm minister with respect to Sugar exports. Overall sentiments in the medium term would depend on the permissible Sugar exports by India. Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 – Rs. 2900 per qtl levels.

Turmeric Review

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trade sideways to up due to recovery in demand from overseas and domestic buyers. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term turmeric prices may trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals owing to better production.

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MCX Commodity Updates

Spot Gold continued to trade higher today, as worries in the Middle East and North Africa increased safe-haven demand for gold. Geo-political worries in Libya continued as there are no signs of leader Muammar Gaddafi stepping down after 41 years in power. This led investors to flock towards gold as a safe-haven investment. In addition to this weakness in the US dollar also helped the yellow metal prices to rise today.

Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from poor sentiments in the global equity markets today. As the crisis in Libya worsened, investors moved away from riskier assets. Nickel was the worst performer of the day, as the metal prices have slipped around 2.6 percent on the LME and were trading at $27,750/tonne at 4.00 pm IST today.

We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to weak sentiments in the global markets today. While, crude oil prices are expected to trade with a positive bias mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries and weakness in the US dollar today. But sharp gains in prices will be capped due to poor sentiments in the global markets and expected rise in US oil inventories. Geo-political worries will help the bullion pack to trade higher today. Additionally, weakness in the US dollar will also act as a supportive factor for gold prices to rise.

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MCX Bullion Trend

MCX Bullion Trend

Spot Gold prices ended slightly lower on Tuesday as investors sold the yellow metal in order to cover losses. During yesterday’s trade Spot Gold prices touched a seven-week high of $1410/oz but slipped by the end of trade. Prices had risen sharply in the last few days and profit-booking at higher levels was inevitable. Geo-political concerns and inflation risks persists and these will continue to boost gold prices in the short-term.

Silver prices too witnessed downside pressure yesterday as the white metal slipped 2.3 percent to close at $33.07/oz after touching a high of $34.30/oz. Prices fell from 31-year high, taking cues from decline in gold prices. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell to 10519.05 tonnes on 18 February.

Precious metals will continue to take support from geo-political concerns which will boost demand from the safe-haven perspective. Rising oil prices raise risk of inflation and this will assure demand for gold as an inflation hedge.

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MCX Commodity bullion Trend

MCX Bullion Trend

Silver Trend

Silver prices gained sharply in today’s trade with prices Spot Gold and MCX Silver March prices rising a whopping 2.5 percent till 4.00pm IST. The white metal prices hit a high of Rs49,924/kg and moved towards the crucial Rs50,000 mark. Demand for silver in India is rising and the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) expects imports to be around 2400 tonnes in 2011.

Gold Trend

Spot Gold prices continued to rise on Monday as continuing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa boosted demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset. Prices rose despite strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. Mixed sentiments prevailed in the global financial markets which began the day on a weak note. Spot Gold prices gained almost 1 percent till 4.00pm IST and are currently trading around the crucial $1400/oz mark. Prices on the MCX gained 0.8 percent and appreciation in the

Rupee capped further gains.

Copper Trend

Copper prices stabilized in today’s trading session after witnessing sharp fall in the last week. Prices on the LME are currently hovering around $9870/levels but continue to remain below the crucial $10000/mark. We expect downside pressure in the red metal as demand concerns persist and China’s move to continue to tighten its monetary policy is also negative.

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Daily MCX Commodity Trend

MCX Commodity Trend

Gold Review

Spot Gold prices traded higher today as rising tensions in the Middle East led to demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven. Apart from that, inflationary pressures are also supporting demand for gold as an inflation hedge. But MCX Gold April contract witnessed downside pressure till 4.00 pm IST as appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped gains in the domestic markets.

Copper Review

Copper prices continued to witness downside pressure on inflation worries coupled with concerns over demand for the red metal. It has been witnessed that, Chinese activity in the copper market is low because of the recent impact of Chinese New Year holidays. Also, there are fears that China could further raise interest rates, thereby leading to concern that demand from the world’s largest consumer may get affected.

Crude Oil Review

Nymex Crude Oil prices continued the uptrend as the Israel-Iran tension and unrest in the Middle East led to expectations over supply disruption. But sharp rise in prices was restricted on account of rise in inventories by 860,000 million barrels to 345.9 million barrels, marking the fifth straight weekly rise.

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MCX Commodity , Base Metal Trend

MCX Review

Gold prices are expected to rise as concerns over inflation dominate global market sentiments. We expect crude oil prices to trade with a positive bias as unrest in the Middle East region could spark supply worries. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its weekly inventory data which is expected to show a rise. Prices could come under pressure if data comes in as per expectations.

Base metal prices are expected to come under pressure today as investors fear further monetary policy tightening by China. Inflationary pressures are rising and may affect economic growth going forward as interest rates rise amid a slowly improving global economic scenario.

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MCX Tips

Silver Buy
At- 45695
Tgt -  45755, 45810
SL - 45595


Gold Buy
At- 20304
Tgt - 20335, 20351
SL - 20266

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MCX Tips

Silver Buy
At - 45465
tgt - 45490, 45540
Sl - 45425

MCX Commodity Trend, Gold & Base Metal Review

MCX Commodity Trend

Gold Price review

Spot Gold prices were trading on a flat note at $1362.93/oz till 4.00 pm IST. But, on the MCX, gold prices gained around 0.2 percent and were hovering around `20,254/10 gm at the same time. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee helped the yellow metal prices to rise on the domestic bourses today. Since investors are moving from safe-haven to riskier investments, gold prices are witnessing downside pressure.

Base Metal Review

Base metal prices delivered worst performance in today’s trading session. China’s step to curb inflation exerted pressure on the metasl. Zinc was the worst performer of the day as the metal declined more than 1.5 percent on the LME and touched an intra-day low of $2452/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. Shipments at Peru's main port resumed, using Navy sailors to load a cargo ship with zinc yesterday. Hence this eased supply concerns in zinc markets. Peru is a leading global producer of gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead and tin.

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MCX Gold Trend, Oil Trend

Gold Trend

Gold edges up, gains tempered by China

LONDON - Gold edged up for a second day on Tuesday, shrugging off a rise in China’s benchmark interest rates, while equities fell, the euro picked up and flows of metal out of exchange-traded funds stabilised. The gold price came under intense pressure last week after more signs emerged that global growth continues to improve and that the euro zone debt crisis has not worsened, which eroded some investor appetite for the metal.

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,352.80 an ounce by 1055 GMT, set for a second consecutive weekly rise but still 5 percent below record highs struck in mid-December.

Oil Review

Oil drops after China rate hike

LONDON - Oil prices fell on Tuesday after China moved to tame inflation with an interest rate increase, the second lift in just over six weeks.

US crude (WTI) for March fell by $1.13 to $86.35 a barrel by 1122 GMT. ICE Brent lost 95 cents to $98.30 a barrel. “I think it was a largely expected move, they are trying to put pressure on the economy in 2011 as they don’t want inflation to rise too much,” Credit Agricole CIB’s analyst Christophe Barret said. “Of course it will have an impact on oil demand.”

Stronger interest rates may act to tame oil demand growth in China, which according to the International Energy Agency recently overtook the United States as the largest energy consumer in the world.

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MCX Commodity bullion Trend

MCX Commodity Trend

Nickel Trend

Nickel was the best performer of the day as the metal gained almost 1 percent on the LME and around 0.5 percent on the MCX. Prices touched an intra-day high of $28,125/tonne on the LME and were hovering around $28,067/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. Decline in inventories on the LME supported prices. Nickel inventories declined 0.5 percent to reach the level of 132,798 tonnes today. On the MCX, the metal prices hit an intra-day high of `1283.90/kg and were trading at ` 1282.40/kg around the same time.

Crude Oil Review

Crude oil prices are expected to trade higher today, mainly on the back of political unrest in Egypt as supply concerns may erupt in the Suez Canal if issues escalate. We expect gold prices to receive support on the back of concerns surrounding Egypt as this could lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold Review

Spot Gold prices came under pressure in today’s Asian trading session, touching an intra-day low of $1347/oz till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX gold prices (April contract) were hovering around `20,065/10 gm at the same time. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee led to minimal losses on the domestic markets today.

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MCX Commodity , Base Metal Trend

MCX Base Metal Review

MCX Gold Trend

Spot Gold prices gained 0.4 percent in the Asian trading session today, touching an intra-day high of $1340.25/oz till 4.00 pm IST. The weaker US dollar helped prices to trade higher in the international markets today. But, on the MCX, the April futures contract for delivery was trading at `20,202/10 gm, up 0.1 percent at the same time with gains being capped on slight strength in the Indian Rupee.

MCX Nickel Trend

Nickel was the top gainer in the Asian trade today, as the metal prices gained more than 1 percent on the LME as well as on the MCX. LME Nickel prices hit a high of $27,864/tonne, the highest since May 2008 and were hovering at $27,700/tonne at 4.00 pm IST today. On the MCX, prices gained around 1.6 percent and were trading at `1243.90/kg around the same time. News stated today that production at Yabulu nickel refinery in Australia has been suspended on expectations of a cyclone hitting the northeastern Australia later this week. Yabulu refinery produces about 30,000 tonnes of nickel per year.

Crude Oil Review

Crude oil prices were trading lower in the Asian trade today, with the Nymex March futures down 0.5percent till 4.00 pm IST. Oil prices declined today mainly on expectations of rise in the US crude oil inventories. On the MCX, the February futures contract was quoting at `4219/bbl, down 0.2 percent at 4.00 pm IST. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventory data later at midnight today. As per Reuters poll, crude oil inventories are th expected to increase 2.8 million barrels in the w/e 28 January 2011.

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