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Commodity MCX, NCDEX Trend for today

Commodity MCX Trend
Better than expected GDP figures of India announced today helped the domestic equities recover in today’s session. India reported GDP growth of 8.9% in the second quarter, as against 8.8% in the first quarter. However, poor global economic scenario continued to raise concerns in the global equities. Euro zone’s unemployment rate increased to 10.1% in October as against the revised 10.0% in the earlier month. Gold prices gained today, with the MCX December contract gaining around 0.4% in the afternoon trade. Mixed sentiments in the equity markets coupled with ongoing economic issues in the Euro
zone attracted investors towards the yellow metal on the back of safe‐haven demand.

Strength in the US dollar and mixed sentiments in the global financial markets exerted pressure on LME copper prices today. The red metal prices declined round 0.7% on the LME, touching an intra‐day low of $8172/tonne till 3.45 pm IST. Chile’s Collahuasi mine, the world’s third largest copper mine continued its wage talks today signaling the possibilities of strike coming to an end if these negotiations succeed. On the MCX, copper prices gained by more than 0.5% and were hovering at `382.60/kg at 3.45 pm IST. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee helped copper prices to rise on the domestic bourses today.

Crude oil prices were trading lower on the Nymex today, mainly on the back of strength in the dollar and weak sentiments in the global equity markets today.Prices declined by almost 1% on the Nymex and were trading at $84.99/bbl till 3.45 pm IST. On the MCX, oil prices were trading in the green on the back of weaker domestic currency. Spot Rupee depreciated around 0.6%, touching a 11‐week low of 46.11 against the US dollar today.


Analysis/Outlook - The European equity markets are currently trading on a mixed note, but we expect the global equities to end in the red in today’s evening session on the back of economic concerns, especially in the Euro zone. Data on Manufacturing PMI of China is scheduled to be released early morning tomorrow. There are expectations of rise in manufacturing activity in the world’s fastest growing economy. But, considering the poor economic scenario in other developed economies, we expect commodity prices to remain under pressure. Moreover, the US dollar is expected to remain strong in the US session today and this factor will also exert pressure on commodity prices. However, gold prices would be the exception and are expected to trade in the green as safe‐haven demand is expected to drive prices higher. 



Commodity NCDEX Trend
Guar Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMAindicating an uptrend.
• 14-days RSI is at 62 and is in neutral region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Guar prices may trade firm due to lower carryover stocks and good demand for Guar gum. In the short term (1-2 week)supply pressure due to increased arrivals may be overshadowed by the increased export demand. In the medium termtrend would depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas markets and the movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar.

Chana Prices on daily charts closed above its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating an upward trend.
• 14-days RSI is at 71.42 and is in over bought region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
In the present week, we expect Chana prices to remain firm. However, in the short to medium term (one month), Prices may remain weak due to rising arrivals of Kharif pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulses and the climatic conditions prevailing at the time of maturity.

Prices closed above its 10-Day’s and its 20-Day’s EMA Indicating bullish trend.
• 14-Day RSI is at 83.30 and is in overbought zone.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due to lower arrivals and better offtakes at the domestic mandi. Prices in short term (till mid of December), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (December end onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.


NCDEX Commodity Daily Trend

Guar Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating an uptrend.
• 14-days RSI is at 70.85 and is in overbought region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Guar prices may trade range bound with weak sentiments in the short term (1-2 week) supply pressure due to increased arrivals may be overshadowed by the increased export demand. In the medium term trend would depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas markets and the movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar.

Chana Prices on daily charts closed above its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating an upward trend.
• 14-days RSI is at 67.2 and is in neutral region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
In the present week, we expect Chana prices to remain firm. However, in the short to medium term (on month), Prices may remain weak due to rising arrivals of Kharif pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulses and the climatic conditions prevailing at the time of maturity.

Turmeric TrendPrices closed above its 10-Day’s and its 20-Day’s EMA indicating bullish trend.
• 14-Day RSI is at 82.47 and is in overbought zone.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due to lower arrivals and better offtakes at the domestic mandi. Prices in short term (till mid of December), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (December end onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.


Jeera TrendPrices closed below its 10-Day but above its 20-Day EMA indicating sideways trend.
• The 14-Day RSI is at 54.4 and is in neutral zone.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Jeera prices in the intraday will trade firm due to demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the short term (till mid of December), trend will depend on jeera price parity of various origins in international market and stocks of jeera with local stockists. In the medium to long term (December end onwards) prices are likely to take cues from sowing progress in India and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers.

Prices closed below its 10 Day and its 20 Day EMA, which indicates downward trend.
• 14-Day RSI is at 40.45, which is in neutral region.
• Daily MACD is in negative territory.
For Intraday, soybean prices are expected to lower on account of weak overseas market. However, for the long term, Prices are expected to move northward due to bullish USDA’s monthly supply and demand report as USDA unexpectedly lowered its yield estimate for the 2010/11 US soybean crop and lowered ending stocks of US soybean due to strong export demand, lower yield and better export figures of domestic soy meal in the month of October are also in favour of the bulls.

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MCX, Commodity Trend Highlights

Spot gold prices traded sideways in the afternoon session today and were last trading at $1366/oz at 4.00 pm IST. However, on the MCX, gold prices were trading in the green, gaining slightly by 0.1% on the back of a weaker Rupee. On the equity front, the Asian markets mostly ended in the red ahead of the weekend as investors remained skeptical over the Euro zone economic issues. Moreover, there were also rumours of another attack in Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea, which later was found to be untrue.

China’s move to control inflation exerted downside pressure on copper prices on the LME today. Prices declined sharply by 1.6% in the international markets, ouching an intra‐day low of $8161/tonne on the LME till 3.45 pm IST today. In addition to this, the US dollar continued to gain against other major currencies, and this factor further exerted downside pressure on the metal prices. On the MCX, copper prices declined more than 1% and were hovering at `375.85/kg till 3.45 pm today. Losses on the MCX were slightly less on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Spot Rupee declined by 0.5% today, making it a third consecutive weekly decline.

Strength in the US dollar and weak sentiments in the global equity markets led to decline in crude oil prices today. China’s step to increase e margins on the
commodity futures in order to curb the inflation further pressurized oil prices in the global markets today. Oil prices declined almost 1% on the Nymex, touching an intra‐day low of $83.08/bbl till 3.45 pm IST. Crude oil prices slumped by 0.5% on MCX, and were hovering at `3833/bbl around the same time.

Out Look
There is no major data to be released from the US today and the markets will be open only for the first half of the day in the US. Copper and crude oil prices will take cues from the movement in the DX today. We expect the dollar to remain strong today mainly on the back of ongoing concerns with regard to Euro Zone debt crisis. Commodity prices are expected to remain under pressure ahead of the weekend as investors will try to stay away from riskier assets as the Euro zone concerns have gripped markets. Gold prices are expected to remain firm and trade with a positive bias in the evening session on the back of safe‐haven demand.

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MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend Highlights

Commodity Updates
Positive employment data from the US yesterday raised hopes of recovery in the world’s largest economy, thereby reducing demand for the yellow metal as a safe‐haven investment today. Spot Gold prices declined by around 0.3% and were hovering at $1371.05 till 3.45 pm IST. As the US markets are closed on account of Thanksgiving holiday, the global equities showed lackluster performance today. The US Dollar Index (DX) strengthened in the Asian trade and touched a high of 80.05 against a basket of six major currencies.

Strength in the US dollar exerted downside pressure on copper prices on the LME today, as better‐than‐expected employment data from the US yesterday
helped the currency to gain. Prices declined around 0.4% in the international markets, touching an intra‐day low of $8236/tonne till 3.45 pm IST today. Falling inventories on the LME warehouse did not provide any respite to copper today. On the MCX, red metal prices declined almost 1 % and were hovering
at `375.55/kg till 3.45 pm today. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee further pressurized copper prices in the domestic markets. •

Unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with strength in the DX led oil prices lower on the Nymex today. The US Energy Department (EIA) reported yesterday that crude oil inventories in the US increased by 1.0 million barrels to reach 358.6 million barrels in the week ending 19th November. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels while distillate inventories declined by 0.5 million barrels in the same week. Crude oil prices declined around 0.3% on Nymex, touching an intra‐day low of$83.45/bbl till 3.45 pm IST today. 

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MCx Commodity Updates

Gold prices traded on a flat note in the Asian trade today and were hovering around $1377/oz till 4.45 pm IST. On the MCX, the December gold contract for delivery touched an intra‐day high of Rs 20,557 in the afternoon trade today. The Asian equities traded on mixed note today with Japan’s Nikkei losing more than 0.5%. However, Kospi recovered towards the end of the session after declining sharply in the opening session. The Indian equities tumbled in the final hour of trading with the Nifty declining more than 1%. Concerns over the Euro zone debt crisis persist and hence markets are expected to remain choppy.

Copper prices recovered slightly in the afternoon trade today after a sharp decline in yesterday’s trading. On the LME, copper prices were trading at $8228/tonne, up by 0.9% around 5.00 pm IST. Gains in copper prices today were mainly on the back of technical buying at the lower levels. Although, prices are not expected to sustain on the back of grim global economic situation. On the MCX, copper prices were trading at Rs 376.95/kg at 5.00 pm IST.

Crude oil prices rebounded from its losses in the previous session and were trading $81.54/bbl till 4.45 pm IST on the Nymex today. Oil prices witnessed gains mainly on the expectations of decrease in the US crude oil inventories. US oil inventories are expected to decline by 1.9 million barrels for the last week. China’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to increase by 11% in 2011 to around one million barrels per day. On the MCX, oil prices were
trading on a flat note at 5.00 pm IST.

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Base Metal MCX, Commodity Trend

Gold futures rose on Monday on the back of safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Spot gold prices gained around 0.9 percent, closing at $1365.40/oz in the international markets. Investors chose to remain invested in the traditionally accepted safe-haven investment as austerity measures in Ireland face hurdles from opposition parties.


On the MCX, the near-month gold contract for delivery closed at `20140, up 0.3%. Silver prices also took cues from the bullion pack and gained more than 1% in the
international spot market. The December contract on Comex closed at $27.42/oz on Monday.

We expect the bullion pack to trade on a positive note today as uncertainty with regards to implementation of austerity measures in Ireland will drive demand as a safe- haven investment.

Crude oil futures ended in the green on the Nymex, gaining around 0.3 percent on Monday, but slipped from its intra-day high of $82.87/bbl. Oil prices came under
pressure after the US dollar strengthened due to uncertainty in Ireland regarding austerity measures. In addition, choppy sentiments in the global markets also exerted pressure on crude oil prices on Monday. According to the Reuters poll, the American Petroleum Institute (API) administered crude oil inventory data is expected to decline in the week ended Nov 19th. Crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2.3 million barrels in the last week. We expect crude oil prices to trade on a weaker note as Ireland’s concerns coupled with a stronger US dollar will exert pressure.

Today, we expect base metals to trade with a negative bias as uncertainty in Ireland regarding austerity measures and the expected bailout package will strengthened the dollar today. Stronger dollar will continue to exert downside pressure on the base metal prices.

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Commodity for Tomorrow - 23 November

Commodity MCX,NCDEX For Tomorrow

GOLD PARES GAINS AS EURO RELIEF-RALLY FADES.
OIL FALLS BELOW $82 ON IRISH BAILOUT PACKAGE DOUBT.
COPPER WEAKENS AS INVESTORS FRET ABOUT CHINESE DEMAND.
INDIAN TURMERIC & JERRA HIT UPPER LIMIT; PEPPER TRADES FLAT.

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MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend Highlights

Chilli trend remained bullish with increased buying interest and adverse impact on the arrival in the mandis due to recent rains.

Apprehensions of delayed arrival of the new crop and an adverse impact on its productivity due to the recent rains in growing areas in AP have kept trend firm for the commodity. As per Spice Board of India, during April-September export of turmeric has fallen by 15% to 25,750 MT in 2010 from 30,275 MT in 2009.

GUARSEED
Increased export demand for gum is providing the support to the prices. Expectations of slight fall in production and delayed arrivals along with oncerns of crop quality due to the recent rains too have been keeping sentiments bullish for the commodity.

The number of oil and natural-gas rigs operating in the U.S. fell for the first time in four weeks, led by declines in natural-gas drilling.

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Daily Commodity MCX Trend

MCX Commodity Updates 

1- GOLD REBOUNDS AS EURO RECOVERY BENEFITS COMMODITIES.
2- OIL REBOUNDS TOWARDS $82 AS EUROPEAN DEBT WOES EASE.
3- COPPER RALLIES, EASING IRISH DEBT FEARS HIT DOLLAR.
4- INDIAN SPICES RALLY; TURMERIC HIT CONTRACT HIGH.


Spot  gold  prices  started  the  week  on  a  positive  note,  gaining  around  0.5%  in  the  afternoon  trade  today.  The  US  dollar  depreciated  in  the  Asian  and  the European trade today and this factor helped gold prices to trade in the green. However, on the other hand, a sharp upside was capped in gold prices on the back of optimism over Ireland’s bailout. After the ailing economy seeked a bailout on Sunday, UK said today that it would provide around 7 bn British pounds
to the country as a financial aid. The European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are currently working on the financial package to be provided to Ireland.

Copper prices slipped from its intra‐day high of $8516/tonne on the LME today after data indicated that copper imports from China declined for the month of October.  Copper  demand  from  China,  the  world’s  largest  metal  consumer  declined  by  30%  to  169,897  metric  tonnes  in  October  from  the  previous  of 241,711 tonnes in September. However, a sharp decline in copper prices was cushioned on the back of a weaker US dollar. On the MCX, red metal prices declined by 0.3% and were hovering at `383.15/kg till 3.45 pm today.

Crude oil prices rallied today, rebounding strongly from its previous week’s losses. Oil prices surged mainly taking cues from the weakness in the US dollar which declined on optimism over Ireland’s bailout. Positive sentiments in the global financial markets also supported a rise in crude oil prices today. On the  MCX, oil prices gained almost 1% and were hovering at `3782/bbl till 3.45 pm IST today.

Outlook -There is no economic data to be released from the US today. Broader markets are currently trading in the green but are witnessing lackluster trading. Markets will continue to take cues mainly on the developments from the Euro zone front. Copper prices will witness downside pressure on the back of declining imports in  China,  the  largest  consumer  of  the  red  metal.  Crude  oil  prices  are  expected  to  trade  on  a  positive  note  as  weakness  in  the  US  dollar  will  make  prices  attractive  for  holders  of  other  currencies.  Gold  prices  will  also  be  supported  by  a  weaker  greenback,  although  a  sharp  rise  from  the  current  levels  is  not expected.


MCX Trend, NCDEX Trend, Commodity Review

MCX Commodity Trend
MCX Zinc futures is showing some respiration after getting strangulated by sellers earlier this month. The major cause of rally in todays market has been some relief from Dollar side that is now down 63 pips against the EURO at 1.3706. The investors also thought that the selling in Zinc has been a bit overdone as of now that brought back some short covering in the contract. MCX Zinc was trading at Rs 115 per kg earlier this month on 9 Nov 2010, from where one has seen some high amount of risk aversion and profit booking.

Nickel prices are facing severe correction in the markets as the traders returned to short their positions. The most active Nickel contract on MCX, is trading at Rs 979.7 per kg, down Rs 11, or 1.1%. The selling in markets is the result of diceyness in currency markets. On Thursday, Dollar was down against the EURO as the initial jobless claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly last week to 439,000 from 437,000 (revised from 435,000). Dollar now quotes at 1.3634 sideways against EURO. The Dollar ended at 1.3643 against the EURO on Thursday.

NCDEX Commodity review

Guar Review - Emergence of demand for Guar gum due to fresh export enquiries may support Guar prices in the present week. However, prices may trade range bound in the short term (2-3 weeks) supply pressure due to increased arrivals may be overshadowed by the increased export demand. In the medium term trend would depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas markets and the movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar.

Guar Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating an uptrend.
• 14-days RSI is at 68.23 and is moving towards overbought
region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.

Chana prices may trade lower in the short term due to rising arrivals of Kharif pulses coupled with increasing area under Rabi Pulses (especially Chana). December onwards, trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulses.

Chana Prices on daily charts closed below its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating downward trend.
• 14-days RSI is at 49.14 and is in neutral zone.
• MACD is in the negative territory.

Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade bullish due to revival of demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices in short term (till  November), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and
growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (December onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.

Prices closed above its 10-Day’s and its 20-Day’s EMA indicating bullish trend.
• 14-Day RSI is at 77 and is nearing the overbought region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.

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MCX, Commodity Trend Highlights

Spot Gold prices gained almost 1.5% and were hovering around $1355.95/oz till 3.45 pm IST today. The yellow metal prices experienced gains mainly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. Subdued US consumer inflation and unfavorable data from the US has fueled speculation of Fed pumping more money in the US economy in order to accelerate the growth. On the MCX; gold prices gained around 0.7% and were trading at  `20,050 till 3.45 IST today. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee has supported the yellow metal prices on the domestic bourses today.
 
MCX Copper  Trend
Copper prices rallied, gaining almost 2%, on the LME, touching an intra‐day high of $8362.50/tonne till 3.45 pm IST today. Weakness in the US dollar coupled with positive sentiments in the global equities acted as a supportive factor for the red metal prices to gain today. Moreover, falling inventory levels in the LME warehouse additionally helped the prices to move in the northward direction today.  LME copper inventories declined by 525 tonnes to 360,600 tonnes today. On the MCX, copper prices jumped by more than 1% and were hovering at `379.65/kg today. 

MCX Crude Trend
Crude oil prices rebounded from its four‐week low, surging by almost 2% on the Nymex till 3.45 pm IST today. Oil prices witnessed gains mainly on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with easing concerns over Ireland’s debt issues today. Moreover, the unexpected decline in the US crude oil inventories in the last week has also supported the oil prices today. On the MCX, oil prices declined around 1.4% and were hovering at `3800/bbl till 4.30 pm IST today.  

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MCX, Commodity Trend Highlights

Spot Gold prices gained around 0.2% and were hovering around $1362.15/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. The yellow metal prices gained slightly in today’s session after a steep decline in the last two sessions. The Euro zone finance ministers are  scheduled to meet today to discuss about Ireland’s debt scenario and are likely to announce the status of the ailing economy. This factor also kept gold prices firm in the Asian trade today. But sharp gains in the yellow metal prices were capped due to strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). The Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicated that it would raise margin requirements for gold by 5.9
percent and 11.5 percent for silver.

Copper prices declined sharply by 1.2%, on the LME, touching an intra‐day low of $8510/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. Strong dollar exerted ownside pressure on the red metal prices today. Moreover, increasing worries about European sovereign debt, especially in Ireland, continued to weigh on market sentiment. Chinese officials announced that they are trying to bring down the speculation in agri‐ trading. Concerns over China raising interest rates also prevail which is also acting as a negative factor for the commodity prices. On the MCX, copper prices declined more than 1% and were hovering at
`387.45/kg today.

Crude oil prices declined around 0.5% on the Nymex till 4.00 pm IST today. Oil prices witnessed declines mainly taking cues from the strength in the DX today. Moreover, expectations of a buildup in oil stockpiles in the US last week also exerted downside pressure on the crude oil prices in the Asian trade today. On the MCX, oil prices declined around 1.4% and were hovering at `3800/bbl till 4.30 pm IST today. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly data on crude oil inventories later at night today. A Reuters poll is  expecting oil inventories to increase by 0.4 million barrels.

NCDEX Daily Trend

Guar Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating an uptrend.
• 14-days RSI is at 77.2 and is moving towards overbought region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Guar futures may trade higher due to firm sentiments prevailing across physical markets. Emergence of demand for Guar gum due to fresh export enquiries may support Guar prices in the present week. However, prices may trade range
bound in the short term (2-3 weeks) as arrivals are expected to increase after mid November. In the medium term trend would depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas markets and the movement of Indian Rupee against
US dollar.
Chana Prices on daily charts closed below its 10-days and its 20-days EMA,  indicating downward trend.
• 14-days RSI is at 49.1 and is in neutral zone.
• MACD is in the negative territory.
Lower offtakes by the local stockists will keep Chana prices bearish in the  intraday. Prices may continue to trade lower in the short term due to rising arrivals of Kharif pulses coupled with increasing area under Rabi Pulses (especially Chana). December onwards, trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulses.

Prices closed below its 10-Day but above its 20-Day EMA indicating bullish trend.
• The 14-Day RSI is at 57.6 and is in neutral region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due to improved buying from local stockists. In the short term (till November), Pepper prices will depend on global Black pepper availability and demand from the overseas and domestic market. In the medium to long term (December onwards), price trend will depend on demand from the overseas and domestic market, pepper stocks with major producers and Black pepper production estimates of in India and Vietnam of 2011.

Prices closed above its 10-Day’s and its 20-Day’s EMA indicating bullish trend.
• 14-Day RSI is at 71.2 and is nearing the overbought region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade sideways to up due to revival of demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices in short term (till November), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers
and growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (December onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.

Live Commodity Updates


Zinc inventories fell 450 tonnes to 631425 tonnes against 631875 tonnes recorded on November, 12, 2010, while aluminium also witnessed steep decline in inventories at 4252125 down 425 points from 4252550 tonnes.

However, Lead inventories increased sharply by 2675 tonnes at 205450 tonnes against 202775 tonnes.

Nickel inventories also rose but at a slower pace. The nickel stocks at the LME warehouses rose 66 tonnes from 130356 tonnes to 130422 tonnes.

Copper consumption seems robust as the inventories of the red metal fell 75 tonnes to 362700 tonnes against 362775 tonnes.


Higher output outlook and increased arrivals in the markets set the selling sentiment on the bourses today.

The selling was also atributed to the weak global cues. Malaysian CPO futures was down more then 1%. The benchmark January contract slipped to the low of MYR 3278 and the contract is currently trading lower at MYR 3313, down MYR 40 from the last close.

Meanwhile, E-CBOT Soya Oil December contract traded at 51.55, down 0.98 cents per pound from the Friday's close.

On the Indian commexes the cooking oil remained range-bound. NCDEX Refined Soya Oil for the December delivery traded in the range of Rs 578-Rs 568.40 per 10 kg.

MCX Trend, NCDEX Trend, Commodity Review

Commodity MCX Review

MCX Gold futures rose in the afternoon trades today as world economic worries came to support the yellow metal after an initial period of volatile moves with a backward inclination. The prices toppled in the Asian session after rate hike worries in China yet again resurfaced. However, the prices consolidated at lower levels, just above $1360 an ounce and launched a rebound before the media reports stated stating that Greece expects the budget deficit in 2010 to exceed its target. EUs statistics agency said today that the countrys debt last year was actually much higher than expected.

Commodity NCDEX Review

Chana futures have pared their early looses in afternoon trading triggered by strong stockiest demand ahead of marriage season. The future prices have gained almost 1% in todays trading.As per market sources , strong demand of chana during marriage season will also provide some support to the prices in the near term. In todays trading , chana futures have wilted their early losses and were trading in positive territory at Rs 2433 per quintal with the gains of Rs 24 per quintal.

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MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend Highlights

Ukraine raised coal production approximately 3.6% from a year earlier in Jan to Oct to 61.93 million tonnes as per local reports. Of that, the country turned out 19.89 million tonnes of coking coal in the first ten months, falling 7.8% year on year, while thermal coal production rose 10.1% to 42.033 million tonnes.Coal production in Ukraine rose 7% in 2009 compared with 2008 to 72.22 million tonnes, including 25.49 million tonnes of coking coal, down 4.3%, and 46.73 million tonnes of thermal coal down by 8.4%.

Irans fossil-fuel subsidy was higher than any other country in 2009 at $66 billion, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, creating strain on the countrys economy and inefficiencies in its energy sector. In its World Energy Outlook report, the IEA recognized Irans recent efforts to address the problems created by the subsidies, but noted many challenges remain before changes are implemented. "The chronic under-pricing of domestic energy in Iran represents a large subsidy that burdens the economy and contributes to deep inefficiencies in the energy sector," the agency said.

The market responded to the Global Pepper Conference in Kochi, India positively. Prices have increased in domestic as well as in the international markets.In India, activity has increased and futures prices at the Commodity Exchange moved up by around 1-3%.In Daklak, Vietnam, pepper prices for raw material stood at VND 85,000 per kg during the week, recording a significant increase of VND 10,000 from VND 75,000 per kg in the last week.In Lampung, the price was higher by 3% and 1% increase was recorded in Sarawak. A sharp increase of 10% was also reported in Sri Lanka. 

MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend Highlights

 Commodity For Today

1- GOLD INCHES UP ON DLR RALLY PAUSE, PHYSICAL BUYING.
2- US OIL CLIMBS TO 25-MTH HIGH ON CHINA DEMAND, U.S. SUPPLY.
3- LME COPPER SURGES TO RECORD HIGH AFTER CHINA DATA.
4- INDIAN JEERA FALLS ON SLACK DEMAND; PEPPER UP.

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Daily Commodity MCX - Metal Trend

Commodity MCX Metal Review
Gold prices gained today, taking cues from the G20 meeting at Seoul, which started with mixed views over economic issues. As the global policymakers have gathered in South Korea, there are concerns that the ministers are less likely to achieve consensus over trading disputes, especially involving the currency around $1406.65/oz at 4.00 pm IST today, whereas on the MCX, the December futures contract for gold was movements. Spot gold prices were trading hovering around `20425/10 gm around the same time. The Indian equity markets tumbled towards the end of the trading session, as investors remain clueless over the outcome of the crucial G20 meet. The European equities were trading in the green, but witnessed lackluster trading.

Copper prices rallied, gaining almost 2% on the LME till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices hit its multi‐month high of $8945/tonne, taking cues from the
latest Chinese data which indicates that China’s industrial production rose by 13.1% in October. Moreover, refined copper production in China declined by 1.2% m‐o‐m and 0.2 percent from a year earlier to 400,000 tonnes in October. On the MCX, copper prices surged more than more than 2.2% and were hovering at `398.10/kg at 4.00 pm IST today.

Crude oil prices gained around 0.5% both on the Nymex and on the MCX till 4.00 pm IST today. Nymex crude oil prices touched its 25‐month high of $88.35/bbl mainly taking cues from economic data which indicated an increase in industrial production in China. This coupled with declining US crude oil inventories supported the oil prices today. Crude oil inventories declined unexpectedly by 3.3 million barrels last week, the US Energy Department reported.On the MCX, oil prices touched an intra‐day high of `3923/bbl and were hovering at `3919/bbl till 4.00 pm IST today.
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NCDEX -Commodity Trend


Despite increased arrivals compared to last week, Guar futures may trade sideways with positive bias in the coming days due to poor quality of fresh guar crop amidst improved demand for Guar and it’s by products. Also, the output which was expected to be much higher may decline by 12-15% due to off seasonal rainfall which may damage the crop. We expect arrivals to strength after the first week of November (i.e. after Diwali). Also, the quality crop would arrive by than. Thus, prices are expected decline after mid November as higher supplies may dampen the prices. Guar prices may trade in the range of Rs. 1900- 2300 per qtl in the Medium term.

Chana prices may remain sideways in the intraday. In the short term, Chana prices may gain by Rs. 70-80 per qtl on the reports of depleting stocks in the domestic markets and expectation of good demand from millers. However, November onwards, Chana futures are expected to remain under pressure on the reports of higher sowing acreage under Kharif Pulses and expectations rise in acreage under Rabi Pulses due to increase in MSP.

Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due demand from the local and overseas buyers. Prices in short term (till October), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (November onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.
For Intraday, soybean prices are expected to trade range bound with weak sentiments on fresh arrivals. In the medium term, soybean prices are expected to move southwards on account of increased arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, which is a major producing state of soybean and it contributes more than 50% of its total production. Existing better carry over stock this year as compared to last year are in favour of bears in the long term.

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Daily Commodity MCX - Metal Trend

MCX Trend

Gold Review
 - India's gold imports rose to 43 tonnes in October from 36.2 tonnes a year ago.
 - Spot Gold prices closed at $1351.70/oz on Monday.
 - Spread between MCX Dec Gold and Mini Gold contract is (-5) against the  previous day of (-6).

Spot gold prices started the week on a weaker note, declining around 0.5% to close at $1351/oz, slightly above its intra-day low of $1348/oz. The yellow metal prices declined on Monday, taking cues from the movement in the US Dollar Index (DX) in the evening session. The inverse co-relation between the DX and the yellow metal has been very strong in the last couple of weeks as gold prices are mainly taking cues from the movement in the DX. The DX gained slightly on Monday, closing at 77.24 against a basket of six currencies.

On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have support at $1345/$1336 whereas resistance is seen at $1360/$1372. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $24.33/$24.10 whereas resistance is seen at $24.92/$25.30 levels. MCX December Gold has support at 19635/19554 whereas resistance is seen at 19780/19840. MCX December Silver shall find support at 36495/36150 whereas resistance is seen at 37355/37890 levels.

Copper Trend
Copper prices gained around 1.2% on the LME, touching an intra- day high of $8377/tonne on Monday. On the MCX platform, the red metal prices gained more than 1%, to close at `373.05/kg yesterday. LME copper inventories declined by 925 tonnes to reach 367,575 tonnes yesterday. Threat of a worker strike at Chile's giant Collahuasi mine persist as the company continues to hold talks with the mine workers.


Copper prices will trade with a negative bias today with immediate support for MCX November contract seen at `369.10 further below; crucial support is seen at `365.30 levels. Whereas resistance is seen at `374.90 levels & further upwards at `377.60 levels.


Zinc Trend
Zinc prices will trade with a negative bias today with immediate support seen at `107.90 level for MCX November contract whereas crucial support is seen at `106.60 level. Short-term resistance is seen at `110.10 whereas major resistance is seen at `111.65 leve.

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MCX - Commodity Metal Trend
Spot Gold prices gained around 0.3% and were hovering around $1363.70/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. Despite positive sentiments in the equity markets, the yellow metal prices experienced gains mainly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. The DX depreciated against a basket of six
currencies and was trading at 76.97 till 4.00 pm IST. The European equities were trading in the green in the afternoon trade. The domestic equities comprising the Sensex and Nifty traded on a positive note today. On the MCX platform, gold prices increased slightly by 0.2% and were trading around 119,838 till 3.45 IST today.

Copper prices rallied, gaining more than 1.5% on LME, and touched an intra‐day high of $8341/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices were trading at $8320/tonne around the same time. Copper prices witnessed sharp gains mainly due to positive manufacturing data from China, the largestconsumer of the metal. The Manufacturing PMI of China rose to 54.7 in October, more than the forecast of 53.5. In the earlier month of September, the index had reported figures of 53.8. Moreover, weakness in the DX also helped the red metal prices to gain today. Copper inventories dropped by 925 tonnes
to reach 367,575 tonnes on the LME warehouse today. On the MCX, copper prices gained sharply around 1% and were hovering at `372.65/kg today.

Crude oil prices gained by almost 1% on both on the Nymex as well as on the MCX till 4.00 pm IST today. Oil prices touched an intra‐day high of $82.17/bbl,
on the Nymex today. Crude oil prices experienced gains mainly due to positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest oil consumer. Moreover,
weakness in the DX has also acted as a supportive factor for the oil prices to gain today. On the MCX, crude oil prices were trading at `3663/bbl till 4.00pm
IST today.

NCDEX - Commodity Trend
Sugar price set to plummet further this Diwali
Diwali could be a little sweeter this season and lighter on the wallet as well, as the price of sugar is set to plummet further from the already low levels. The factory gate price of sugar in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest producer, is expected to nose-dive to Rs 2,725 a qtl, or 100 kilos, in November, a good Rs 375 less
than the price during the same period last year. Sugar prices have been going down since September in consonance with the higher sugar output estimates in 2010-11.

Guar Review
Despite increased arrivals compared to last week, Guar futures may trade sideways with positive bias in the coming days due to poor quality of fresh guar crop amidst improved demand for Guar and it’s by products. Also, the output which was expected to be much higher may decline by 12-15% due to off seasonal rainfall which may damage the crop. We expect arrivals to strength after the first week of November (i.e. after Diwali). Also, the quality crop would arrive by than. Thus, prices are expected decline after mid November as higher supplies may dampen the prices. Guar prices may trade in the range of Rs. 1900- 2300 per qtl in the Medium term.

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